The mobile technology landscape is a varied and technologically heterogeneous. As far as device capabilities have come in the last 5 years, handsets still host various run-time environments that present fragmented options for innovators. While iPhone has been the clear market leader in smartphone applications in the past 2 years, there are a myriad of takers for the mantle of second place between Google’s Android, Blackberry, Microsoft, and the fading PalmOS. The number of choices is good for consumers – but how do you pick a horse as a mobile application developer?
This fragmentation is certainly the least appealing facet of the mobile application market. The investment in the construction of a mobile application is staggering. Tomi Ahonen (author of Communities Dominate Brands) did a recent breakdown of the economics of the iTunes App Store and concluded that on average it costs over $35,000 USD to build the typical iPhone application. But that same average application will only net $682 USD in revenues per year. Compare that with the cost of developing a web application targeted at mobile devices – about 1/10th that cost.
Now think about developing an Android, Windows, Blackberry, and iPhone port of your mobile application. The numbers are as prohibitive as they come.
The high stakes here are incentivizing bad behavior: Apple’s license agreement for iOS development being the prime example of defensive maneuvering in the fragmented market. Not only are we being cornered into repetitive development for multiple platforms – but now extra steps are being taken to ensure that we have to. Adobe’s model to metacompile flash applications for iPhone deployment became a lightning rod for Apple this past spring. PhoneGap skirts metacompilation by providing a development toolkit more akin to a scaffold, but consistently lags behind in support for more recent device features.
Fragmentation of desktop platforms has always been a far less limiting problem. Virtualization and tools for cross-platform compilation has enabled developers to target a ubiquitous number of platforms or more often than not, simply disregard the problem. Furthermore, the development of rich internet applications delivered by the browser has provided a natural cross-platform channel. With the evolution of the HTML5 standard and it’s continued support by big players like Google and Apple – the ability to take a “write once, run anywhere” mentality to application development via the web browser will continue to be the disruptive force in software delivery as deployment costs continue to be pushed down.
The most ubiquitous mobile browsers – Safari and Chrome, both support much of HTML5 for their host devices. So why haven’t developers turned to the browser to solve the problem of mobile deployment in the same way they have for desktop applications? As big as the promise that have been delivered by RIA development has been, there have always been significant limitations – ones that mobile environments exacerbate:
Until these limitations are addressed, mobile applications will continue to be loss centers or complimentary pieces of larger application ecosystems. If mobile deployment is ever to replace or even rival the ubiquity of desktops, they will need to take the human factors learning’s of the past years that have enabled such rich mobile applications and apply them to a deployment and commercial model that enables platforms solely targeted at mobile to exist profitably on their own
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